Recently, there was an upswing in French linguistic nationalism in Quebec. Commentators have drawn parallels between Quebec separatism and Scottish calls for independence. The vote on whether Scotland will stay in the UK draws near:
18 September 2014.
The calls for separation, the conflict in the Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East all have something in common: Arctic energy.
Sanctions against Russia over the Ukrainian conflict
happen to block Russia's progress in Arctic oil exploitation.
In the Arctic, a 2008 United States Geological Survey estimated that there are likely 90 billion barrels of oil and 44 billion barrels of natural gas. From the
Russian Geographical Society:
While most offshore areas have not been surveyed for resources, the
extensive continental shelves in the region are believed to hold huge
reserves of oil and gas. In 2008 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
completed the most comprehensive assessment of potential hydrocarbon
reserves to date, using computer modeling to evaluate 25 Arctic
geological provinces. From this, the USGS estimates that the
“undiscovered, technically recoverable” stores of petroleum include 90
billion barrels of oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44
billion barrels of natural-gas liquids. These figures suggest the
Arctic may hold about 22 percent of the undiscovered conventional
hydrocarbon reserves untapped worldwide.
Roughly 85 percent of these potential reserves are thought to occur
offshore at depths of 450 meters or less. The majority of untapped
natural gas probably lies within Russian territory, while most of the
oil is located offshore of Alaska. The assessment indicates that more
than 70 percent of the petroleum stores are concentrated in only five
geological provinces: Alaska; the Amerasian Basin (underlying the Arctic
Ocean); and the East Greenland Rift, East Barents, and West
Greenland–East Canada basins.
That amount of energy resources is sufficient to redraw the
whole picture of geopolitical power and global conflict, and gives a glimpse of the future. From
Ernst and Young:
A "USGS study estimated that the Arctic could hold about 13% of the
world’s undiscovered oil reserves and as much as 30% of the world’s
undiscovered natural gas reserves."
Russia claims
around 50 per cent of potential Arctic oil and gas resources. The
USA
claims approximately 20 per cent;
Norway 12 per cent;
Greenland 11 per cent; and
Canada claims roughly 5 per cent of these resources.
Other estimates place Canada's share at a much higher 20 per cent. There are
disputed Arctic areas which determine these countries' relative wealth and power in the region.
Metro:
“It’s the opening chapter of what’s going
to amount to be a very long story, and people are playing nice and
working together — for now,” says Robert Huebert, a University of
Calgary professor and expert in circumpolar relations and defence
policy.
Non-Arctic powers also stake claims
in polar regions: "As the Arctic ice melts, the area is predicted to become a center of
strategic competition and economic activity.
Last year [in 2013], China signed a
free trade agreement with Iceland and
sent an icebreaker to the region despite having no viable claims in the Arctic."
To put this into the Middle Eastern perspective:
OPEC states that the Middle East, Africa and South America
have an estimated
1.2 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves.
The Economist predicts that demand for oil in some developed countries will fall, due to technological and sustainable energy innovations.
But in developing countries, consumption of oil is rapidly increasing, as is the population. A
2013 BP study projected energy needs up to 2030:
- Population and income growth are the key drivers behind growing
demand for energy. By 2030 world population is projected to reach 8.3
billion, which means an additional 1.3 billion people will need energy;
and world income in 2030 is expected to be roughly double the 2011 level
in real terms.
- World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a.
from 2011 to 2030, adding 36% to global consumption by 2030. The
growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. for 2000-10, to 2.1% p.a. for 2010-20, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.
- Low and medium income economies outside the OECD account for over
90% of population growth to 2030. Due to their rapid industrialisation,
urbanisation and motorisation, they also contribute 70% of the global
GDP growth and over 90% of the global energy demand growth.
By 2035, global demand is expected to reach 101 million barrels of oil per day.
In 2011,
The Economist estimated
the world's total proven oil reserves (reserves that can be extracted
with current technology) of around 1.38 trillion barrels would run out
over the next 100 years. Most analysts
foresee a decline of output and corresponding importance of the Middle East, with a turning point
around 2030.
Real Clear World: "There may be as many as 7.9 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable
oil [i.e.
unproven reserves] left in the world from all sources, according to the
IEA, with more
than 90 percent of it outside the Middle East."
