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Monday, January 27, 2020

Coronavirus Roundup: The Struggle to Control the Narrative Begins


Image Source: rfi.

Here is the coronavirus roundup for today, mainly from medical sources and reports on evacuations. It is very difficult to pinpoint exact information, and so conclusions and discussions - whether formal and informed or not - vary wildly. There are indications that the Chinese government has not fully disclosed the extent of the outbreak; or perhaps they do not know. People on Chinese social media criticize the government, while the government strives to control the narrative. Meanwhile, the usual suspects are at work in western countries, and are using this issue as an excuse to crack down further on the alt-media and social media and to eradicate any rogue narratives.

Initial medical studies - based on very limited, preliminary information - are not encouraging and are also conflicting. A commenter from Reddit wrote today:
"The Lancet study of the first 41 patients paints a shocking picture: They were all 'stable' for 10.5 days on average before suddenly needing to go on respirators and 6 of them dying even more days after that."
Links:
  • Map; another map; numbers tracking
  • Chinese government press conference (28 January 2020)
  • Assessment in Viruses (2020, 12, 135, doi:10.3390/v12020135) published 24 January 2020: Makes no mention of the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, despite acknowledging that some infected people had no contact with the seafood market
  • CBC (27 January 2020): Online claims that Chinese scientists stole coronavirus from Winnipeg lab have 'no factual basis': A CBC News report was distorted to create conspiracy theory circulating online
  • Business Insider (27 January 2020): A new report indicates that the deadly Chinese coronavirus may not actually have originated at a wet market in Wuhan
  • CCN (27 January 2020): Scientists Pinpoint 2 Causes Behind China’s Deadly Coronavirus – They’re Both Shocking: two possible causes are consumption of bats and snakes; or a release from the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory
  • Washington Times (27 January 2020): China silent amid growing doubts over coronavirus origins
  • WHO statement (23 January 2020); WHO assessment (26 January 2020); WHO statement (27 January 2020)
  • US CDC coronavirus main page; summary page
  • Public Health Agency of Canada coronavirus main page; press meeting 27 January 2020
  • Taiwan Daily (25 January 2020; hat tip: Natural News) reports on a Lancet study (The Lancet (24 January 2020): A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster; DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9), published by Hong Kong and Chinese researchers, based on a tiny family sample of 5: 15% mortality rate from this virus (!); it features person-to-person transmission; transmission possible by asymptomatic infected individuals: 83% (!) of those exposed are infected; 3-6 day incubation period; another article states that those who are infected and survive suffer permanent heart injury
  • The Lancet (24 January 2020): Emerging understandings of 2019-nCoV; DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30186-0
  • The Lancet (24 January 2020): A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern; DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9
  • The Lancet (24 January 2020): Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China; DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5
  • The Lancet (24 January 2020): Data sharing and outbreaks: best practice exemplified; DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30184-7
  • Nature warned in 2017 (Nature 542, 399–400 (23 February 2017) doi:10.1038/nature.2017.21487) that a bioweapon could escape from the BSL-4 lab facility in Wuhan
  • Science (24 January 2020): Policy for reviewing risky virus experiments under reconsideration
  • Natural News (26 January 2020): Speculation that the seafood market origin of the coronavirus is a cover story
  • Bloomberg (26 January 2020): China Names HIV Drugs in Treatment Plan for New Virus
  • NYT (26 January 2020): France to Repatriate Citizens From Wuhan as Virus Spreads
  • ABC News (27 January 2020): US to evacuate consulate staff from Wuhan to San Francisco amid coronavirus outbreak
  • The Guardian (27 January 2020): Britons in Wuhan decry ‘pathetic’ UK government coronavirus advice; see also: The Independent
  • National Post (27 January 2020): First Canadian coronavirus case officially confirmed, second is presumptive, 19 people under investigation
  • Reports on evacuations of: New Zealanders in Wuhan; Australians; Germans; Indians; Italians; Japanese; Dutch nationals; Russians; South Koreans; almost 5,000 students from 12 African countries (students who leave now may lose their degrees)
  • The Star (27 January 2020): Canada is exploring whether to evacuate citizens from coronavirus quarantine in China
  • American Action Forum (24 January 2020): The Economics of Pandemics
  • FluTrackers.com: Pandemic Discussion Forum; topics include: Operating a Small Business in a Disaster; Ethical Considerations in a Pandemic; Economics in a Pandemic

New paper wrt transmission (not peer reviewed; BioRxiv- Posted January 26, 2020) from r/China_Flu

Disparity between China cases and International Cases from r/China_Flu

Resources to stay up to date on the 2019-nCoV outbreak from r/China_Flu

Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions | R0 of 3.8, and 94.9% of cases are unidentified, travel restrictions in Wuhan likely ineffective | 24JAN20 from r/nCoV

Wife of Canada's first coronavirus patient tests positive, 19 under investigation from r/nCoV

nCoV vaccine prognosis | 27JAN20 from r/nCoV

Russian scientists in Novosibirsk's VECTOR developing two novel coronavirus vaccines from r/China_Flu

A glimmer in the distance. Monday morning 9 AM EST | (27JAN20) from r/nCoV

Chart 1: Case/Deaths by country | Chart 2: Cases by Country| Updated: 26JAN20@UTD11:15 from r/nCoV

WHO advice on home care for mild cases from r/nCoV

Asymptomatic man infects 14 medics with coronavirus. They are calling him "超级传播者" (Super-spreader), he took more than 15 days to start feeling symptoms, even though he was able to infect the doctors and nurses. from r/nCoV


Villagers close roads and guard with knives and spears in rural areas. Desperate measures in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. (Source and gallery in comments) from r/nCoV








See all my posts on Epidemics here and here.


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